Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
